02 · Live calls and the scored record

Forecasts

Every inflation and growth forecast we publish, and how each one scored against the outcome and against the Wall Street consensus for the same month. Forecasts are published before the release, never revised afterwards, and no scheduled month is omitted.

Current calls latest calls scored

US PCE — July 2026 scored 26 Aug 2026

Headline

+0.10%

actual +0.16% · miss −6 bp

Core

+0.20%

actual +0.25% · miss −5 bp

Consensus missed by −6 / −5 bp · next ahead of the BEA release, 30 Sep 2026 Published forecast → PCE series →

US Real GDP — 2026Q2 scored 30 Jul 2026

Annualised, SAAR

+1.1%

advance +1.5% · miss −40 bp

GDPNow 1.5 · SPF 2.1 · NY Fed 2.8 at our publication · next ahead of the BEA advance release, 29 Oct 2026 Published forecast → GDP series →

US CPI — August 2026 scored 11 Sep 2026

Headline

+0.37%

actual +0.40% · miss −3 bp

Core

+0.19%

actual +0.29% · miss −10 bp

Consensus missed by +0 / −9 bp · next ahead of the BLS release, 14 Oct 2026 Published forecast → CPI series →

Record at a glance

Inflation forecasts scored

CPI and PCE, headline and core

Our mean abs. error

0.094

percentage points, MoM

Consensus mean abs. error

0.085

same 32 forecasts

Across the full inflation record we are marginally behind the consensus. We trail it on all four series. Amber marks the smaller error in each row.

US CPI 8 prints · Jan–Aug 2026

Reference month	Headline CPI, MoM %					Core CPI, MoM %
Reference month	MER	Cons.	Actual	Our err	Cons. err	MER	Cons.	Actual	Our err	Cons. err
Jan 2026	0.33	0.30	0.17	0.16	0.13	0.21	0.30	0.30	0.09	0.00
Feb 2026	0.26	0.30	0.27	0.01	0.03	0.26	0.30	0.22	0.04	0.08
Mar 2026	0.72	1.00	0.87	0.15	0.13	0.24	0.30	0.20	0.04	0.10
Apr 2026	0.59	0.60	0.64	0.05	0.04	0.31	0.50	0.38	0.07	0.12
May 2026	0.50	0.50	0.47	0.03	0.03	0.30	0.30	0.21	0.09	0.09
Jun 2026	−0.02	−0.10	−0.42	0.40	0.32	0.20	0.20	−0.02	0.22	0.22
Jul 2026	0.07	0.10	0.07	0.00	0.03	0.15	0.20	0.22	0.07	0.02
Aug 2026	0.37	0.40	0.40	0.03	0.00	0.19	0.20	0.29	0.10	0.09
Mean absolute error				0.104	0.089				0.090	0.090

See the full CPI series, components and run-rates →

US PCE 8 prints · Dec 2025–Jul 2026

Reference month	Headline PCE, MoM %					Core PCE, MoM %
Reference month	MER	Cons.	Actual	Our err	Cons. err	MER	Cons.	Actual	Our err	Cons. err
Dec 2025	0.25	0.30	0.36	0.11	0.06	0.20	0.30	0.36	0.16	0.06
Jan 2026	0.19	0.20	0.28	0.09	0.08	0.21	0.20	0.36	0.15	0.16
Feb 2026	0.20	0.20	0.38	0.18	0.18	0.20	0.20	0.37	0.17	0.17
Mar 2026	0.60	0.60	0.66	0.06	0.06	0.30	0.30	0.29	0.01	0.01
Apr 2026	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.10	0.10	0.30	0.30	0.24	0.06	0.06
May 2026	0.39	0.40	0.45	0.06	0.05	0.20	0.20	0.32	0.12	0.12
Jun 2026	−0.10	−0.10	−0.11	0.01	0.01	0.20	0.20	0.13	0.07	0.07
Jul 2026	0.10	0.10	0.16	0.06	0.06	0.20	0.20	0.25	0.05	0.05
Mean absolute error				0.084	0.075				0.099	0.087

See the full PCE series, components and run-rates →

US Real GDP 13 quarters · 2023Q2–2026Q2

Quarter	MER	GDPNow	SPF	NY Fed	BEA first print	MER err	GDPNow err	SPF err	NY Fed err
2023Q2	1.8	2.4	1.0	1.1	2.4	0.6	0.0	1.4	1.3
2023Q3	3.6	5.4	1.9	2.6	4.9	1.3	0.5	3.0	2.3
2023Q4	2.9	2.4	1.3	2.4	3.3	0.4	0.9	2.0	0.9
2024Q1	1.5	2.7	2.1	2.2	1.6	0.1	1.1	0.5	0.6
2024Q2	1.9	2.6	2.1	2.0	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.8
2024Q3	2.7	2.8	1.9	2.9	2.8	0.1	0.0	0.9	0.1
2024Q4	2.7	2.3	2.2	2.6	2.3	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.3
2025Q1	−0.2	−2.7	2.5	2.6	−0.3	0.1	2.4	2.8	2.9
2025Q2	5.4	2.9	1.5	1.7	3.0	2.4	0.1	1.5	1.3
2025Q3	2.5	3.5	1.3	2.4	4.3	1.8	0.8	3.0	1.9
2025Q4	2.3	4.2	1.1	2.7	1.4	0.9	2.8	0.3	1.3
2026Q1	2.2	1.2	2.6	2.4	2.0	0.2	0.8	0.6	0.4
2026Q2	1.1	1.5	2.1	2.8	1.5	0.4	0.0	0.6	1.3
2026Q3	nowcast not yet published				—	BEA advance 2026-10-29
Mean absolute error						0.74	0.75	1.35	1.19

Scored on BEA’s first published estimate for each quarter, the number each forecaster was predicting. Amber marks the closest call in each quarter.

Aggregate 13 quarters

Forecaster	n	MAE (pp)	RMSE (pp)	Median err
Macro Edge Research	13	0.74	1.01	0.40
Atlanta Fed GDPNow	13	0.75	1.16	0.51
NY Fed Staff Nowcast	13	1.19	1.44	1.30
Philadelphia Fed SPF, median	13	1.35	1.68	0.91

Scored against each quarter’s first published BEA estimate — normally the advance release, but for 2025Q3 the initial estimate of 23 December 2025, BEA having cancelled that quarter’s advance during the federal shutdown. 2023Q2–2025Q4 are backtested model reconstructions at each quarter’s historical data cut-off, not calls published at the time; 2026Q1 onward are published nowcasts. Atlanta Fed GDPNow’s mean absolute error is within 0.01 pp of ours over these 13 quarters — not a distinguishable margin, and it should be read as level rather than as a lead.

See the full GDP series, growth contributions and the deflator →

Producer prices released record · not a forecast

PPI carries no scorecard here because we do not forecast it. BEA builds several core PCE components from PPI rather than CPI: hospital and physician services, health insurance, airfares and portfolio management. See the full PPI series, the production pipeline and the PCE-linked components →

And what the market and households expect NEXT, which is the only forward-looking series on the site: TIPS breakevens, the 5y5y forward the Fed cites when it calls expectations anchored, and the household survey that runs persistently above both. See inflation expectations →

How this table is built

Scored against the first release. Every forecast is compared with the statistical agency’s initial published estimate, not the latest revision, because that is the number the consensus was set against and the number the market traded.

Consensus as captured at our publication time. The comparison figure is the median Wall Street economist forecast available when we published, so both columns reflect the same information set. Consensus can move in the days before a release; once the number is out, neither column is restated.

Interval calibration, how often the outcome landed inside our published 68% and 95% bands, will be reported here once enough intervals have accumulated to make the figure meaningful.

Forecasts are estimates, not statements of fact, and are inherently uncertain. Past forecast accuracy is not indicative of future accuracy. See the full disclaimer.