Latest July 2026 · monthly · breakevens averaged from daily · series from 1978
5y5y forward
2.22%
Jul 2026
5-year breakeven
2.26%
Jul 2026
10-year breakeven
2.24%
Jul 2026
30-year breakeven
2.23%
Jun 2026
UMich households, 1y
4.80%
May 2026
Cleveland Fed, 10y
2.43%
Jul 2026
RangeFromToShaded = NBER recession
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shaded bands mark NBER-dated US recessions, peak to trough
The anchor5-year, 5-year forward · the Fed's own reference for anchoring
Source: Macro Edge Research · underlying data Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, University of Michigan
Market-basedTIPS breakevens · include a liquidity and risk premium
Source: Macro Edge Research · underlying data Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, University of Michigan
Model-basedCleveland Fed term structure
Source: Macro Edge Research · underlying data Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, University of Michigan
Households vs the modelboth 1-year
Source: Macro Edge Research · underlying data Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, University of Michigan
Household wedgeUMich less the Cleveland Fed model, both 1-year
Source: Macro Edge Research · underlying data Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, University of Michigan
Breakevens are the yield difference between nominal Treasuries and TIPS, so they measure inflation COMPENSATION rather than expectation alone: they embed a liquidity and inflation-risk premium and move with risk appetite as well as with the outlook. The Cleveland Fed figures are model estimates combining market data with surveys; the University of Michigan figures are household survey medians, which run persistently above both. None is definitive, which is why all three are shown. Daily breakevens are averaged over observed trading days within each month, so intramonth moves are not visible here.
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